作者：R0meal编译 来自：linux.chinaunix.net
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现如今，我们可以在Linux上干任何事情，除了玩最新的游戏，除去这一点，Linux还真一点都不逊色。但是为什么只有一小部分用户在使用Linux呢？下面是我列出的4个主要原因。正是这些原因导致了Windows的成功，或者说是Linux失败。
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, A9 J3 }' o+ P# M' A' c 在我陈述上述理由之前，先为我说两句，也许大家认为我是一个Linux敌对人士，你错了!我每天都在使用我的Linux桌面操作系统，这篇文章正是我在我的SLED 10上写的。而且我还在我的笔记本电脑上运行MEPIS6.01和Xandros专业版Linux，而且我还在别的地方安装和使用各种不同的Linux发行版，比如Freespire1.0、FedoraCore 6和openSUSE1.2等等，简而言之，我用Linux，我喜欢它们，但是这一切都不能掩盖目前的商业事实，那就是Widnows是成功的，而Linux是失败的。
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' m( A/ ^7 E6 O/ u原因主要有四点：( z/ |; x" O8 H' T; @( `
1、相比较Windows而言，Linux的目前用户基础太小，看看我们这些在从学校里毕业的IT精英们，有几个不是Windows用户
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2、PC供应商的支持太少，附带有Windows的PC到处有的卖，想买Apple机器也不成问题，找一下也能找到，但是要买带有Linux操作系统的PC就悬了$ y$ Y6 ]" I- c/ t( g4 L
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3、硬件厂商支持太少，无线网卡、扫描仪、iPod等等，太多了无法识别邮件，也许Linux的忠实用户知道，这是硬件厂商的问题，但是普通用户不管，就一根筋的认为Linux驱动太差
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$ C" i, e7 d5 ]- O8 y9 P+ B4、软件厂商的支持太少，特别是安装问题，Linux平台总是在使用比较奇怪的“简单”方法，比如Yum Apt等等。最近开源业界正在展开相关工作，为Linux的软件安装进行改进，最后的结果可能类似于Windows的傻瓜安装包，一路next就可以了。 最后，假如我们上面提出的问题都能很好的得到解决，而且Windows 在Vista上面有所犯错，Linux桌面的机会就来了。Linux桌面新年好运！
+ P) R* s0 v! h0 ?, L! m) s$ K3 fOpinion -- Today, you can do everything you want with a Linux desktop, except play the latest games. Even there, Linux is catching up.So, why do only a handful of people run Linux instead of Windows? Hereare my top-four reasons why Windows wins and Linux loses.
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6 ?& m0 t7 [! p- P. t+ Q; f% V3 zBeforeI start, though, let me say -- because people always assume I'manti-Linux when I write pieces like this -- that I use Linux desktopsevery day. I'm writing this on a SLED (SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop)10 system, I run MEPIS 6.01 and Xandros Professional Desktop 4.1 on mylaptops, and on my other desktops that I use at least weekly, you'llfind Freespire 1.0, Fedora Core 6, and openSUSE 10.2. In short, I useLinux. I love Linux. But, that doesn't mean I'm blind to businessreality, Windows virtues, or Linux flaws.
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So, without further adieu, the number-one reason why Linux trails in the desktop races...- W5 F7 l, i2 C7 `
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#1: The installed base
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Thereare, what, hundreds of millions of Windows XP and 2000 systems stillout there and working? That's a lot of systems. That's a lot of peoplewho know nothing but Windows.
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Canonical CEO Mark Shuttleworth claims that there are at least 8 million Ubuntu Linux desktops alone out there. I wish I could believe that number, but I don't.
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4 Z, Q8 W! `- ]' j5 t2 k4 x4 OIcould believe that there are 8-million total Linux desktops out there.If we accept that there are 8 million Linux desktops out there, basedon IDC market-share Linux marketshare estimates that would mean we'retalking over a billion Windows desktops out there. Ouch. 3 y- b) } }( Z9 w
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Theinstalled base, however, may turn out to be a blessing in disguise forthe Linux desktop. That's because the analysts think that Vista isgoing to have real trouble pulling users away from older versions ofWindows.
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Al Gillen, vice president of research at IDC, recently told eWEEK that one of the biggest threats facing Microsoft in 2007 is its own installed base.Even Rob Enderle, principal analyst at The Enderle Group and aconsultant to Microsoft, said he doesn't see much demand for Vista bothbecause of its abysmally late launch and users who will stick withtheir legacy systems.
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In addition, Gillen thinks thatMicrosoft's focus on reducing piracy with its invasive authenticationsystems, "may accidentally accelerate the option of Linux as a clientoperating system. Microsoft's client operating system anti-piracyefforts may well backfire and that very anti-piracy campaign coulddrive customers toward Linux."! F' J9 G( D/ L6 d7 s6 g P
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So, maybe this will be the yearthat the Linux desktop market doubles, or even triples, in size. Thatwill mean great business for Novell, Red Hat, and Ubuntu, but that willstill leave Linux hundreds of millions of users running Windows.
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#2: PC vendor support4 [! E* B# x. E9 n* @* b
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Ifyou want to buy a Windows system, go anywhere and you can pick up one.If you want to buy a Mac, you'll need to do a little looking, but yourlocal yellow pages should point you to a dealer in your area withoutmuch fuss. If you want to buy a Linux desktop... well, prepare for along hunt.
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Yes, they're out there. Linspire, in particular, does a good job of partnering with smaller PC manufacturers and distributors. For example, Koolbox's Mini koolbox line of Mac Mini-style PCs are fine low-end computers for a decent price.
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5 j* O5 M: I3 `0 N$ f/ pBut,you do have to actively look for a Linux-powered PC. It also doesn'thelp any that even the big-time vendors that offer Linux desktops, likeDell and Lenovo, make it darn hard to buy them. 2 @! b/ y1 ^2 x0 @* x) C2 d$ W
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Thisisn't going to change anytime soon. I've been talking to a lot ofvendors lately, and it's really very simple why we're not going to seemany more pre-loaded Linux desktop PCs anytime soon: there's almost nodemand for them. : |5 S C) [* E
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If you want to see more Linux PCs, you'regoing to need to ask for them; again, and again, and again, because thebig vendors aren't hearing a peep. What demand there is for Linux PCsis coming not from consumers but from enterprise customers. So while Ithink we may see an HP or Dell come out with a low-priced businessdesktop line this year, you can pretty much give up on the fantasy thatCompUSA will have half-a-dozen Linux-powered PCs in its aisles comeChristmas 2007.
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#3: Hardware vendor support
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0 [! X; E3 H9 p" I) T* KOne ofthe things that everyone complains about in Linux is that it doesn'thave enough hardware equipment support -- WiFi cards, iPods, high-endgraphic cards, scanners, whatever. You know what? They're right./ {5 A8 X) j2 E+ }! \; E1 f; w
, ], G2 F' d% t: j2 x! XIt'snot Linux's fault, but, repeat after me: users don't care. All theyknow is that they can't connect to their WiFi access point, or thattheir all-in-one scanner/printer/fax machine can only print.4 \3 H% d) x' M1 N# G; l# |9 J
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Yes,with Linux, 99 percent of all hardware works with 95 percent of itsfunctionality. Again, users don't care. All, they know is that theirWiFi card doesn't work, therefore Linux is trash.
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2 G0 A/ G' I6 `4 \+ S$ a2 EThis is not,however, a problem just for Linux. Windows users, who have becomeaccustomed to the idea that everything always works with their systems,are in for a rude awakening when they start upgrading to Vista. Then,they're going to find more hardware trouble than Linux users have hadin years.
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& \" W+ X* y5 F0 Y3 J$ aBut, just because Vista users are going to be in thesame boat, won't help the Linux desktop much. Linux companies have todo whatever it takes to work with proprietary hardware. In this regard,Linspire, with its wiliness to include proprietary hardware drivers, has taken a leading position. Other distributions, like Ubuntu, are still fighting over these issues.
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! u2 E- j( d# {( k1 E& EFromwhere I sit, it's really pretty simple. You can be ideologically pureand only use open-source software and have distributions that won'twork well for many people, or you can include some proprietary driversand firmware and produce distributions that will work better for mostusers.
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Another idea that could help, which was kicked around at the last Portland desktop meeting,is to set up a program through which vendors could get their hardwarecertified to work with Linux. Think "Works with Linux," instead of"Works with Windows," as a branding campaign, and you have the idea. M* S3 t7 h* o! [# k* j# n& L' _
$ |5 Q8 R; \! H4 NI,for one, would certainly appreciate being able to look at an ad, or atthe packaging, and know at a glance whether the goodies inside willwork with Linux. This kind of hardware certification sounds a loteasier than it is to actually do, but I think it would go a long waytoward making Linux more popular with casual users.( }2 i- Q* u, d# {
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There's also a related problem, but here Linux could gain a permanent advantage over Windows. As open source leader Eric S. Raymond saidat last August's LinuxWorld in San Francisco, as PCs make the jump from32-bits to 64-bits Linux has a chance to become the number-oneoperating system.
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To do that, however, Linux needs to have alot more 64-bit drivers, and applications that work in 64-bits. One ofthe biggest problems is that most Linux distributions and the LSB(Linux Standard Base) maintain separate library repositories for 32-bitand 64-bit applications.
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% E% @; C6 ]: s6 _# \7 E* g5 @0 e, n, YWhat that means, in practice, is thatyou can't run 32-bit and 64-bit programs together. For instance, if youuse 64-bit Firefox, you can't use 32-bit Macromedia Flash or AdobeAcrobat. Can you say annoying?
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1 Y4 _: Z# U/ n0 F& _6 [ tIn this area, Windows is actuallyin worse shape than Linux. Running 64-bit Windows is much more of apain than Linux. Now, if Linux can move forward in the 64-bit agenda,we could have an operating system that -- even to the most naive eye --performs better than Windows. 0 i9 i" \2 B: u( B& O5 N
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#4: Software support4 G( c9 o5 K& _6 W. _8 E' n
& `9 I/ ^+ ? w0 f) QYes,I can run anything I want on Linux today, but then I'm an expert. Mostusers will do well with Firefox for browsing, GAIM for IM, OpenOfficefor office work, and Thunderbird or Evolution for email. But, once youmove beyond the basics, though, it gets more complicated.
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3 }: X& x3 C: C! Q$ VPartof the problem is that there's no single easy way to install softwareon Linux. On Windows, you click on the installer, and, wham, bang,you're in business. Vista is going to change that for the worse, butthat's not our problem. % K% z8 S2 D, I) n
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Our problem is that we havehalf-a-dozen very different "easy" ways to install programs, like apt,YaST, and yum. We also have some software that will only install if youknow exactly what you're doing with rpmbuild, make, and directorypermissions.
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8 Y/ A; P, x( n4 \- `Now, the LSB and friends are working on solving the installation problem.Better still, their approach of creating a common, high-level API(application programming interface) sounds very workable. With somework, by this time next year, installing applications may be just asmindless for most Linux users as installing programs on Windowscurrently is for XP users.: U% r) `+ w: W6 ?. j h# _
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Another sore point is that Linux is still struggling to find common ground for desktop developers. Thanks to the Portland Project,Linux is now well on the way toward making it possible for ISVs(independent software vendors) to build an application one time for anymainstream distribution without needing to worry about whether thedesktop environment is KDE or GNOME. For users, this means that theycan just get an application simply run it on their distribution,without fussing or fiddling. . x' L d, {6 @# A2 m9 e: }; k
* p$ g' o1 c# `+ X# cLinux is also catching up withWindows software development because it finally has an answer to theoutstanding MSDN (Microsoft Software Developers Network): the LSB Developer Network. With these resources, programmers will be able to write Linux software almost as easily as their Windows developer friends.
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- ~- N- s9 _7 m3 LThisis all good news... for software developers. For end-users, having awide variety of software choices that are easy to use on anydistribution is still a ways off. At least, however, Linux is finallyon its way toward applications for ordinary, rather than only expert,users.
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9 C$ ^ _ T: KGiving Windows a run for its money
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If Linux can improve in all these areas, and Vista stumbles,as I expect it will, we may finally see Linux giving Windows a run forits money in the marketplace. I certainly hope that will be the case. Ialready know Linux makes a great desktop operating system -- I'd likethe rest of the world to be able to join me on it.
